I imagine that if Trump were to initiate a successful conquest of Canada, it would not be made into a state but a territory. Thus, no voting in the US presidential elections.
In that case, over 11% of America's population (~43.5 million people) would be unable to elect the president or have voting representation in Congress. In the long term (and maybe even in the short term), I don't see that as very tenable for a supposed democracy.
Although I agree that Trump’s Canadian annexation plans are nothing more than the typical verbal diarrhea to be expected from him, I do enjoy fantasizing about adding Canada’s provinces to the US and I don’t think it’s that clear that it would give Democrats an advantage. I see Ontario as a swing state in the mold of Michigan or Pennsylvania - just look at their elected leader Doug Ford. Alberta, Manitoba and Saskatchewan seem like forever red states. And annexation would highly increase the likelihood that Quebec finally goes its own separate way, so adding all those factors together, it could actually end up giving Republicans a permanent advantage.
It is fun to hypothesize. But it's worth emphasizing that Canadian Conservative does not equal American Republican. According to polls, Kamala Harris would've beaten Donald Trump even in Alberta, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan. Canadians in general are small-c conservatives, in the sense that they prefer the status quo over disruption--but that status quo is, by American standards, liberal. Temperamentally, Trump is also just classically un-Canadian: brash, impolite, flashy, chaotic. A Republican candidate like Mitt Romney might stand a fighting chance in Canada. But would the Republicans ever nominate someone like Romney again?
I bet that if Canada were annexed, the Republicans would quickly moderate back towards the Romney direction or something like that. And although it’s total fantasy, this scenario is still 100x more likely than Jordan annexing the West Bank.
Another factor at play is that you'd have a de facto open border between the two countries (now one country). Many Canadians might move south for economic opportunities. There also might be a degree of political sorting, in which American liberals move north and Canadian conservatives move south. Perhaps, in the end, there'd be a secessionist movement for all of former Canada and the northern blue states to become a separate country: Greater Canada, not Greater America! But yes, this is all fantasy.
Jordan annexing the West Bank is a more likely scenario because the status of the West Bank and the Palestinians is internationally unresolved. Thus, there's a problem that needs a solution. By contrast, Canada's status as an independent country has long been established, so Trump is creating a problem out of nothing.
I suspect that the Trump base might resist any GOP moderation back to Romney-style policies and might instead form a new party in such a scenario, similar to Reform in Britain. So, we could have three major US political parties: Democrats, Republicans, and (Legacy) Trumpists. And Democrats would have the option of allying with either Republicans or (Legacy) Trumpists to secure majorities for themselves.
If that could happen it would have likely already been the case in the US, but there is a strong gravitational pull in the two-party system. The two parties are almost exactly identical in electoral weight, so even the slightest tilt in one direction can hand full control to one side. That incentivizes unity at all costs on each side.
That’s why this change can be combined with the implementation of ranked-choice voting nationwide.
But also I’m not sure that Trumpists would care about handing the election to the Democrats if the alternative means consistently voting for Romney-style cuckservatives. At the very least, many more Trumpists would stay at home.
All good points, but I would think about one other thing. The right in Canada is more like centrist Republicans here. Not Trumpy at all. Obviously no one can predict future elections, but I think there is a pretty good chance that the "former Canadians" would be reliably Dem voters, at least in the short term. WHen he first started babbling about this, my immediate thought is that our friends in the great white north could help us out down here . They become part of the US under Trump, vote blue in 26 and 28, we get a nice solid Dem majority, and then we can legislatively "give them their independence".
The baseline Canadian Conservative position (there are exceptions of course) is no attempt to criminalize abortion, gun control that would make the NRA weep, and ongoing support for our national single payer health care system, along with the tax rates necessary to pay for that, including a VAT.
The Liberals, NDP, BQ, and Greens (who together comprise a clear majority of the electorate) are all to the LEFT of that. Yes, we have "the People's Party of Canada" to the right, I think they pulled in 2% last time.
If a generic Republican ran in a Canadian election he'd lose. Trump is entirely another matter, and is now loathed. If he ran in a Canadian election he'd absolutely get his ass handed to him.
My admiration for the United States has now curdled to loathing, but I ignore all talk of being a "51st state"... we will never ever be allowed to vote.
Canadian conservatives (and Canadian liberals) also love merit-based immigration, but in extraordinarily massive numbers, not in the puny per capita numbers that Trump's and Vance's beloved RAISE Act proposes.
Canadian here. Good piece. Your confusion mirrors my own... we have no idea what the hell Trump is trying to do.
I'm a Canadian-American, which makes this whole situation even more surreal for me.
I keep thinking about ONAN - the Organization of North American Nations in DFW's Infinite Jest. That led to Quebecois terrorism in the Lower 48 too.
I imagine that if Trump were to initiate a successful conquest of Canada, it would not be made into a state but a territory. Thus, no voting in the US presidential elections.
In that case, over 11% of America's population (~43.5 million people) would be unable to elect the president or have voting representation in Congress. In the long term (and maybe even in the short term), I don't see that as very tenable for a supposed democracy.
I agree.
But I also don't think America will last long as a democracy if it's already forcibly annexing sovereign nations.
I suspect that this is why Trump likes Putin and wants to emulate him.
Quebec can become an American protectorate; it would be stupid for the US to outright annex it lol.
Although I agree that Trump’s Canadian annexation plans are nothing more than the typical verbal diarrhea to be expected from him, I do enjoy fantasizing about adding Canada’s provinces to the US and I don’t think it’s that clear that it would give Democrats an advantage. I see Ontario as a swing state in the mold of Michigan or Pennsylvania - just look at their elected leader Doug Ford. Alberta, Manitoba and Saskatchewan seem like forever red states. And annexation would highly increase the likelihood that Quebec finally goes its own separate way, so adding all those factors together, it could actually end up giving Republicans a permanent advantage.
It is fun to hypothesize. But it's worth emphasizing that Canadian Conservative does not equal American Republican. According to polls, Kamala Harris would've beaten Donald Trump even in Alberta, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan. Canadians in general are small-c conservatives, in the sense that they prefer the status quo over disruption--but that status quo is, by American standards, liberal. Temperamentally, Trump is also just classically un-Canadian: brash, impolite, flashy, chaotic. A Republican candidate like Mitt Romney might stand a fighting chance in Canada. But would the Republicans ever nominate someone like Romney again?
I bet that if Canada were annexed, the Republicans would quickly moderate back towards the Romney direction or something like that. And although it’s total fantasy, this scenario is still 100x more likely than Jordan annexing the West Bank.
Another factor at play is that you'd have a de facto open border between the two countries (now one country). Many Canadians might move south for economic opportunities. There also might be a degree of political sorting, in which American liberals move north and Canadian conservatives move south. Perhaps, in the end, there'd be a secessionist movement for all of former Canada and the northern blue states to become a separate country: Greater Canada, not Greater America! But yes, this is all fantasy.
Jordan annexing the West Bank is a more likely scenario because the status of the West Bank and the Palestinians is internationally unresolved. Thus, there's a problem that needs a solution. By contrast, Canada's status as an independent country has long been established, so Trump is creating a problem out of nothing.
I suspect that the Trump base might resist any GOP moderation back to Romney-style policies and might instead form a new party in such a scenario, similar to Reform in Britain. So, we could have three major US political parties: Democrats, Republicans, and (Legacy) Trumpists. And Democrats would have the option of allying with either Republicans or (Legacy) Trumpists to secure majorities for themselves.
If that could happen it would have likely already been the case in the US, but there is a strong gravitational pull in the two-party system. The two parties are almost exactly identical in electoral weight, so even the slightest tilt in one direction can hand full control to one side. That incentivizes unity at all costs on each side.
That’s why this change can be combined with the implementation of ranked-choice voting nationwide.
But also I’m not sure that Trumpists would care about handing the election to the Democrats if the alternative means consistently voting for Romney-style cuckservatives. At the very least, many more Trumpists would stay at home.
All good points, but I would think about one other thing. The right in Canada is more like centrist Republicans here. Not Trumpy at all. Obviously no one can predict future elections, but I think there is a pretty good chance that the "former Canadians" would be reliably Dem voters, at least in the short term. WHen he first started babbling about this, my immediate thought is that our friends in the great white north could help us out down here . They become part of the US under Trump, vote blue in 26 and 28, we get a nice solid Dem majority, and then we can legislatively "give them their independence".
Canadian here. Are you kidding?
The baseline Canadian Conservative position (there are exceptions of course) is no attempt to criminalize abortion, gun control that would make the NRA weep, and ongoing support for our national single payer health care system, along with the tax rates necessary to pay for that, including a VAT.
The Liberals, NDP, BQ, and Greens (who together comprise a clear majority of the electorate) are all to the LEFT of that. Yes, we have "the People's Party of Canada" to the right, I think they pulled in 2% last time.
If a generic Republican ran in a Canadian election he'd lose. Trump is entirely another matter, and is now loathed. If he ran in a Canadian election he'd absolutely get his ass handed to him.
My admiration for the United States has now curdled to loathing, but I ignore all talk of being a "51st state"... we will never ever be allowed to vote.
Canadian conservatives (and Canadian liberals) also love merit-based immigration, but in extraordinarily massive numbers, not in the puny per capita numbers that Trump's and Vance's beloved RAISE Act proposes.