I think this is definitely not going to happen. Shia Islam is more not less, of unifying feature in Iran than Persian identity. Lots of Iranians, especially putative Iranians, just really hate a lot of other Iranians so that they are happy to see them being killed by foreigners and, while that might be justifiable (and it's certainly reciprocated since the regime used Iraqi militias to murder thousands recently), it's not the stuff of national building. The Ayatollahs have wrecked Iran or perhaps Shi'ism itself wrecked Iran. Not everything can be put back together again.
I appreciate the qualifier "I think this is definitely." A lot can happen, and it's never wise to discount the worst-case scenario. Nevertheless, Iran was a unified nation or empire long before the Ayatollahs. It's not like Iraq, which was artificially stitched together by the British—and which itself is still holding together after the fall of Saddam.
I also don't think it's a question of the Islamic Republic vs the abandonment of Shia Islam. The Khomeinist interpretation of Shi'ism is itself an innovation, influenced by Marxism (through ideologue Ali Shariati) and Platonism (rule by philosopher-kings). A post-revolutionary Iran could still have Shi'ism as part of its national identity, but as a state religion, not a religious movement hijacking the state.
In theory so, but the organised opposition, at any rate the most vocal part, is explicitly anti-Islamic. It's possible that there remains some kind of traditionalist Shi'ism that could fill the void, but Khomeinism has been in development since the 1920s and has had 50 years to snuff out alternatives by force. Are there enough talmidim today of Hossein Ali Montazeri? Seems doubtful.
If the original Khomeinists could ally with Communists (and subsequently crush them), then I'd hope today's anti-regime forces can make strange bedfellows as well. There are plenty of Shi'ites who reject Velayat e Faqih, like Ali al-Sistani in Iraq and the entire country of Azerbaijan. Religions tend not to die, but revolutions usually do.
Yes, there are still plenty of traditionalist Shi'ites *outside Iran* so, again, Persian nationalism and Shi'ism as unifying forces seem to be incompatible.
I think this is definitely not going to happen. Shia Islam is more not less, of unifying feature in Iran than Persian identity. Lots of Iranians, especially putative Iranians, just really hate a lot of other Iranians so that they are happy to see them being killed by foreigners and, while that might be justifiable (and it's certainly reciprocated since the regime used Iraqi militias to murder thousands recently), it's not the stuff of national building. The Ayatollahs have wrecked Iran or perhaps Shi'ism itself wrecked Iran. Not everything can be put back together again.
I appreciate the qualifier "I think this is definitely." A lot can happen, and it's never wise to discount the worst-case scenario. Nevertheless, Iran was a unified nation or empire long before the Ayatollahs. It's not like Iraq, which was artificially stitched together by the British—and which itself is still holding together after the fall of Saddam.
I also don't think it's a question of the Islamic Republic vs the abandonment of Shia Islam. The Khomeinist interpretation of Shi'ism is itself an innovation, influenced by Marxism (through ideologue Ali Shariati) and Platonism (rule by philosopher-kings). A post-revolutionary Iran could still have Shi'ism as part of its national identity, but as a state religion, not a religious movement hijacking the state.
In theory so, but the organised opposition, at any rate the most vocal part, is explicitly anti-Islamic. It's possible that there remains some kind of traditionalist Shi'ism that could fill the void, but Khomeinism has been in development since the 1920s and has had 50 years to snuff out alternatives by force. Are there enough talmidim today of Hossein Ali Montazeri? Seems doubtful.
If the original Khomeinists could ally with Communists (and subsequently crush them), then I'd hope today's anti-regime forces can make strange bedfellows as well. There are plenty of Shi'ites who reject Velayat e Faqih, like Ali al-Sistani in Iraq and the entire country of Azerbaijan. Religions tend not to die, but revolutions usually do.
Yes, there are still plenty of traditionalist Shi'ites *outside Iran* so, again, Persian nationalism and Shi'ism as unifying forces seem to be incompatible.